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Though it has ebbed since its horrific peak two decades ago, the violence has crept up again more recently: was the bloodiest year for a decade. In February, Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed killed more than 40 soldiers in a suicide car bombing — the deadliest attack on Indian forces there for decades.

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The youth of the population, in many cases too young to remember the full cost of the conflict in the s, gives cause for worry. The broader reverberations in an unstable region are as worrying.

The two nuclear-armed neighbours have long been at odds — and at times at war — over the disputed Himalayan region; Bill Clinton once described the ceasefire line as the most dangerous place in the world. The US has been critical in defusing previous crises in the past.

Danger Ahead

But it is harder to place faith in the Trump administration — and Washington is unlikely to be overly interested in the plight of Kashmiris unless the regional peace looks threatened. Seven decades ago, independence and partition posed Kashmir the choice between two nations. When its ruler agreed to accede to India, New Delhi guaranteed it autonomy except in matters such as foreign affairs and defence.

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In reality, that has been eroded over the years. A violent insurgency, partly fuelled by Pakistan, was brutally repressed with severe human rights violations. The scrapping of article is in large part symbolic — but nonetheless hazardous for that.

Lifting restraints on the purchase of land and permanent settlement by outsiders is almost as inflammatory: many fear a consequent demographic shift. Then there is the fact that Merkel, who in was still able to take quite a strong stand toward Putin, is seriously weakened at home. Her self-declared retirement from German politics makes her a lame-duck chancellor.


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Moreover, her government is a coalition with the Social Democrats, who increasingly call for better relations with Russia and show a willingness to loosen sanctions. In , Russia lost its voting rights after annexing Crimea and launching an undeclared war in the Donbas. Another reason for great prudence is the personality and modus operandi of Macron. It gave the Russian president a wonderful opportunity to prove to Russians back home how friendly he is received in the West, without having to give anything in return.

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Macron now feels emboldened by the success of his G7 meeting and believes he is an effective player on the world stage. He certainly will want to make the Normandy Four summit that will be held in Paris a success as well. With a weakened Angela Merkel and a Vladimir Putin who will not be under real pressure to yield anything, the inexperienced Ukrainian president is likely to come under pressure from his Western partners. Of course it can never be excluded that Zelenskyy will surprise everybody by speaking in his usual fresh and open manner void of diplomatic niceties and pull a rabbit out of his hat.